Let the numbers speak
Nathan Moore thinks Ryan Howard being named Rookie-of-the-Year in the National League is a travesty. I’ll just post the numbers and let the readers decide.
Jeff Francoeur’s 2005 batting statistics:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
70 |
257 |
41 |
77 |
20 |
1 |
14 |
45 |
11 |
58 |
3 |
.300 |
.336 |
.549 |
Ryan Howard’s 2005 batting statistics:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
88 |
312 |
52 |
90 |
17 |
2 |
22 |
63 |
33 |
100 |
0 |
.288 |
.356 |
.567 |
Since Ryan Howard played 18 more games and had 55 more at bats, let’s normalize these statistics out to a normal 162-game season for a better comparison.
Jeff Francoeur’s 2005 batting statistics normalized to 162 games:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
595 |
95 |
178 |
46 |
2 |
32 |
104 |
25 |
134 |
7 |
.300 |
.336 |
.549 |
Ryan Howard’s 2005 batting statistics normalized to 162 games:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
574 |
96 |
166 |
31 |
4 |
41 |
116 |
61 |
184 |
0 |
.288 |
.356 |
.567 |
To pull out a couple of run production comparisons, let’s calculate each player’s runs produced, the formula for which is runs + runs batted in – home runs. Again, using the statistics normalized out to 162 games so we can compare apples to apples, Jeff Francoeur would have produced 167 runs. Ryan Howard would have produced 171 runs. Using a similar statistic — runs created — which was developed by baseball statistician Bill James, we use a slightly more complicated formula, the sum of hits plus walks multiplied by total bases, all divided by the sum of at bats plus walks. Using this formula, Jeff Francoeur would have created 106 runs. Ryan Howard would have created 117 runs.
Finally, let’s look at each player’s batting statistics for September 1 through the end of the season, when both the Braves and Phillies were embroiled in a pennant race. In 27 games, Jeff Francoeur batted .235 with four home runs and 14 runs batted in. In 28 games, Ryan Howard batted .292 with 11 home runs and 27 runs batted in.
Furthermore, the Braves began July 15 — the day Francoeur first appeared in the lineup — with a record of 50-40. The Phillies were 46-44 on that same date, four games back of Atlanta. (Ryan Howard had already been called up.) From that point on, the Phillies performed slightly better than the Braves, going 42-30, compared to Atlanta’s 40-32 record, although the Phillies still finished the season two games out of first (and one game out of the wild card.)
By the way, Harry Monroe wonders out loud if the GOP will survive this divisiveness. I hope so.
