According to Thomas Karl of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center, and Kevin Trenberth of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, “There is no doubt that the composition of the atmosphere is changing because of human activities, and today greenhouse gases are the largest human influence on global climate.” Karl and Trenberth claim industrial emissions are a leading cause, which contradicts critics, already in the minority, who argue that global climate change could be caused primarily by natural forces. (Source: “No Doubts Global Warming Is Real, U.S. Experts Say,” Reuters, 12/3/03.)
Well, I’m glad everyone is in agreement here.
Please excuse me for being a dunderhead, but on behalf of those in the scientific community who still adhere to the “natural forces” argument, I personally do not believe human beings are capable of altering the course of global climate. I still naively believe that enormous yellow sphere of combustible hydrogen known as “the sun” wields a little more influence over our climate than the tailpipe.
For example, there are several scientific studies which show a nearly one-to-one correlation between earth’s temperature cycle and sunspot activity. Earlier this year, in fact, scientists V.S. Bashkirtsev and G.P. Mashnich from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences published citations of previous studies as well as results of their own investigations into the impact of sunspot activity on terrestrial temperatures.
Among their conclusions, they state “solar variations naturally explain global cooling observed in 1950-1970, which cannot be understood from the standpoint of the greenhouse effect, since [carbon dioxide] was intensely released into the atmosphere in this period.” In addition, the Russian scientists accurately link the subsequent growth of solar activity to the temperature rise of the last quarter century. (Source: “Is the Global Warming Bubble About to Burst?” Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 9/10/03.)
Meanwhile, Karl and Trenberth note that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased 31% since preindustrial times. Since carbon dioxide is a measurable quantity, I won’t dispute that. The scientists note that, in addition to industrial emissions, sulfate and soot particles also have significant effects. But there’s another source that introduces carbon dioxide into the atmosphere which never seems to warrant mention: human beings. All 6.3 billion of us. And I would categorize the human respiratory function as “natural forces.”
Karl and Trenberth estimate that between 1990 and 2100 there is a 90% probability that average global temperatures will rise between 3.1 and 8.9 degrees Fahrenheit because of human influences on climate. This is truly amazing, because there’s not a meteorologist in the field who can give you the weather forecast five days from now with a 90% probability of accuracy.
Furthermore, I checked the three-month seasonal outlook for January, February, and March from the Climate Prediction Center (also part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). For Tennessee, there is a one-in-three chance that temperatures will be above normal for the period, a one-in-three chance that temperatures will be normal, and a one-in-three chance that temperatures will be below normal. Such is the nature of long-range weather forecasting. Yet Karl and Trenberth can predict, with 90% confidence, that global temperatures 97 years from now will be between 3.1 and 8.9 degrees warmer than in 1990? I don’t think so.
Karl and Trenberth write in the December 5 issue of “Science” that “Given what has happened to date and is projected in the future, significant further climate change is guaranteed.” And, yes, there is also the element of fear which is inherently built into the global warming agenda. “The likely result is more frequent heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation events, and related impacts, e.g., wildfires, heat stress, vegetation changes, and sea-level rise.”
But what these scientists overlook is that our climate exhibited natural swings even before the combustible engine. To claim that a 31% increase in carbon dioxide, which is so scarce that it is measured in parts per million, can have a catastrophic impact on our climate to the exclusion of all other variables is, in my opinion, a little myopic.
In any scientific field, there is a natural discourse that follows the introduction of any theory. In order to “prove” a theory, one must successfully run the gauntlet of scrutiny. Karl and Trenberth have put forth what they believe is supporting evidence to the theory of global warming. And certainly, their predictions warrant some attention. But to simply claim that further discourse on the topic is closed, which is more or less what they have done, demonstrates the unique intolerance of dissent which surrounds global warming.
No area of science should be quarantined from the laboratory of scrutiny and counter-theory. Sure, there are enumerable scientific facts that we accept, because they have withstood scrutiny and been proven and re-proven. But the only reason global warming is considered exempt from challenge is because it is as much a political issue as a scientific one. And, contrary to the claims of Karl and Trenberth, there is a field full of credible scientists who do not buy global warming.
other problems with available schools; 9) student behavior problems at school; 10) child has special needs/disability.



